T-6 Days and Counting

The National Hurricane Center reports that all is quiet in the tropics.  Whew! The GFS model shown on Passageweather is forecasting out as far as Tuesday Nov 8.  At this distance in time, the forecast supports the scenarios for departing Hampton to St. John that Don and I are planning on:

• Plan A: Depart when ready around 1500 on Sunday. ETA at stream, 1100 Monday.   ETA at stream exit, 1700 Monday.  (Assuming only 7 knots, that's 20 hrs to the stream and 6 hrs across.)
• Plan B: Depart around 1000 on Monday. ETA at stream, 0600 Tuesday. ETA at stream exit, noon on Tuesday.

http://www.passageweather.com/index.htm?http%3A//www.passageweather.com/maps/bermuda/mappage.htm

Check out the Gulf Stream tab on the Newport-Bermuda page on that site.

 

Right now the stream is 43 nm across (if we can head perpendicular to it), and it is about 30nm from Hatteras. If we can sail a course 10-15 degrees higher (more easterly) than the rhumb line (RL) of 161M, we can pick up the favorable southerly flow of the cold eddy (CE) centered at 34N 72W.  That will depend on the wind. If it will be as light as forecast, we’ll probably go right down the beach (along the RL), then head E of the RL to cross the stream and jump on the western edge of the CE. Seas are likely to be quite lumpy with NE15 winds opposing the stream.  The model is predicting 2 meter seas left over from the storm that will “bomb” (the term used by NWS meteorologis on that low) off of Hatteras tomorrow, Tuesday Nov 1.

 

But we expect all this to change.  But that's how we think during the approach to departure.  Because we are itchy.