Trick or Treat or Nor'easter?

Wow.  It's not even Halloween and we're expecting 5-9" of snow tonight in the Boston burbs.  Cody and I sure are glad our boats are already in Hampton.  We planned that, of course.  8+) The North Atlantic Rally for Cruisers (NARC) is scheduled to depart Newport for Tortola on Sunday.  As Don said, "I don't think so."

I'm stuck on the weather because it is so impressive and strange (to me).  Hurricane Rita fizzled off the Yucatan.  But tonight this coastal storm will "pop" just south of Long Island, generating a region of 50+ knot winds that will clip Montauk, Block Island, the Vineyard, etc.  One graphic showed a forecast for 70 mph gusts on Cape Cod.  Looking at the surface analysis charts from Bermuda, one day it was nothing;  the next day it was a bomb --just like a December pattern.. in October.  Trick or treat?! 

The next low in the parade is forecast to bring 45-50 knot winds just outside of the Chesapeake on Tuesday.  Wind and seas are forecast to diminish to light and variable by next Saturday as high pressure moves off of Hatteras.  If so, we'll be departing Hampton at dawn on Monday with the motor on in light southerly winds.  But at over a week away, that's just speculation.  We'll be watching the timing of the coastal lows as the week goes by, hoping we get lucky with a Monday departure that will ride the northerlies that immediately follow the passage of a low to our east.

Aside:  At sea, such winds are not a big problem for a seasoned crew on a well-found boat--unless they persist for days.  If they blast right on by, things get lumpy--even awesome--but not dangerous.  If something like this stalls and you are in it, the seas have a chance to build to truly time-to-pray conditions.  (On a return delivery from the Caribbean, the 67' voyaging yacht "Illusion" from Marion was abandoned and later recovered from a beach in the Carolinas.  In the same storm that stalled and that according to the USCG, generated 50' seas, a 62' Little Harbor vanished with all hands.)  This should be avoidable given attentive weather routing and conservative seamanship. Easy for me to say.

On October 30, 2005, Don, Pete and I experienced snow squalls as we sailed Heron south under the Brooklyn Bridge, going in-shore of a passing coastal low. In 2006 I started south a week earlier. It was bitter cold and windy when we spent our first night in Block Island. In 2009 I started south yet another week earlier. We had cold rain and strong winds as we screamed by Annapolis. Yee ha! The bridges were closed to truck traffic. So this year (2011), we left another week earlier--on October 9th, and had marvelous weather. That is why we get to sit here in a warm home and watch this Nor'easter (and the next) pass us by.

Meanwhile, I'd better fire up the snow blower.  Huh?

P.S.  I sure hope that Pinnacle and Another Adventure are gleefully enjoying their passage down the ICW south of Norfolk in nice weather!!