Heron and Freestyle are side-by-side at the Bluewater Marina docks in Hampton, all provisioned to the gills, all crew aboard, and all chomping at the bit to depart. We are tentatively going at noon tomorrow (Monday). But I have whiplash from the past many days of weather updates.
Roughly 120 boats here in Hampton are going through the same angst: Sixty-five boats from the Caribbean 1500 rally are scheduled to go tomorrow (Monday). Ten boats from the Salty Dog group left this afternoon and another 10-20 are waiting for a day or two. Those boats have already waited an entire week here for a good weather window. You can see it in their faces. Grrrrr. The "Canadian Navy" is a flotilla of cruisers who are here too. Several "independents", including Heron and Freestyle are also processing weather from multiple sources. So there you have it. Total chaos.
I'd have to write a book to describe how the weather forecasts have evolved. Here is a taste: We arrived Friday night to Hampton by plane in 30+ knots of freezing cold wind. The barometer screamed upwards to a crazy high of 1030mb, peaking at noon today, now in a clear warm(er) breeze. We are now on the southern edge of a massive high (lying generally E/W at the lattitude of Delaware Bay) that is thankfully extending farther south than the models had forecast just a few days ago. It has a steep pressure gradient descending SE along our RL to a low pressure system that is stalled at sea about 400nm east of the Bahamas. That low is the problem. It has been blocked from zipping up the coast by the massive high and it's pissed. It's been sitting out there cranking day-after-day of very strong NE winds against the notorious NE-flowing Gulf Stream (GS). The seas are observed to be over 20 feet in one region SE of the stream (29N, 72.5W). The NOAA buoy off of Diamond Shoals is "not reporting".
We need to spend 6-10 hours busting across a very messy GS (ENE20-30, seas 10-14 ft) starting about 18 hours after departing this nice comfy dock. Not fun. Then what happens? It depends. If the low continues to weeken and drifts back W towards the coast, we'd be in fat city by Thursday. That's what was predicted before noon today, after having improved every day for the past three days. But suddenly... as of this evening... the NHC is now saying that there is a 20% chance of the low developing into a tropical somethingorother. You can imagine the bar talk at the restaurant here at the marina. Sheeeeit. To quote one seasoned veteran, "I'm going to wait and see. I don't like it when my forecaster (Parker) starts talking about favorable and unfavorable quadrants."
So there you have it. At 0600 we talk to our weather service. At 1000 we check in to a SSB net that will include reports from the ten boats who left and will then be in the Gulf Stream. At noon the C1500 fleet will depart (theoretically). At noon we'll either take wing with the flock, or become tourists in Hampton until the next day. Not analysis paralysis, just whiplash paralysis.
Jay
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