Monday, January 30, 2012

Cruising World Article on the NARC Storms

Ron G. pointed me to a great on-line article in this month’s Cruising World on the November storms, “Hard Lessons Learned in the North Atlantic”. Click on this link to read it.


Don’t’ miss clicking on this link (also linked within the article) that plays the video from Bella Luna. That video is worth a million words, and prompts me to post these comments.



First comment: Articles like this provide a great service by informing the boating community about actual incidents. Thank you author Jen Brett and Cruising World. Besides Cruising World, other good sources for real information on how things can go wrong include the Coast Guard reports in Sounding magazine and articles in Boat US magazine. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the insurance companies could publish their claims investigations on-line?!


Second comment: The text and the video do a fantastic job of putting us right into the cockpits of those boats as they actively manage the constant tensions dealt by storms at sea. How will the wind and sea conditions develop in the future days along our route? Are we squeezing into a narrowing weather window? Is TS Sean developing or moving? Should we push faster or slow down –haul the drogue and hoist the double-reefed main or hang out? Should we hold course, head up, bear off or change destinations altogether—to Bermuda or cross the stream back to the coast? It sounds stupidly obvious to be talking about forecasts, speed and direction, but it takes effort to overcome our natural inertia to stay locked into a go-fast rhumb-line route-plan. We are weaned in protected waters and only really need to manage those tensions when we hang it out there offshore. That’s a reason we are compelled to go out there.


Third comment: When conditions deteriorate, bad things happen and options become limited. Drogue lines foul props; furled jibs develop pockets and threaten to vibrate the rig to destruction, air gets into fuel lines and kills engines and generators, mainsails blow out, autopilots fail, steering cables jump the sheaves, knotmeter transducers blow out!! From the article, it sounded like much that could go wrong did go wrong on some boat. So the idea of squeezing through a weather window to get to Bermuda before a storm—and there is always uncertainty in a storm’s track, IMHO is right out of a scene from the Dirty Harry movie. “Go ahead. Make my day.”


Even with all systems running perfectly, the wind and seas can dictate very few directions in which those boats could head. It’s a lovely goal to keep big seas well aft of the beam. But eventually for some of the boats, Bermuda was upwind to the East, and nastier conditions awaited downwind to the West. Since most storms move and interact with coasts, other storms and ocean currents, it never seems to fail that big seas are confused. Crests interact with each other and with swells and with gusts to make “interesting” shapes arriving from a range of angles in the black of night. Hand-steering during the day, it’s like skiing the moguls –fun for a few hours between stops at the lodge for hot chocolate. During the night or under autopilot (typical), the boat will occasionally come off of a wave with a frightening bang, or clip the top off of a wave. Can you imagine, as the article reports, at 0200 in the night from hell, “...we came off a wave so hard that it blew out the knotmeter transducer!!!” It’s time to slow down or to speed up, according to your boat and energy level. You don’t need to study books or get certified by a class to know this. You can’t ignore when your boat is unhappy and it’s usually obvious what you need to change –assuming those options are still open to you. Don C. knows when he is driving his Hylas 54 Freestyle too hard in big seas when the bell on the main salon bulkhead rings by itself. “Don’t ring the bell”, he challenges the helmsman.


Heron provides a pretty comfortable ride when I listen to her. Drive her too slowly and you don’t benefit from the dynamic stability of her hull design that improves with speed. It takes some sail pressure to dampen roll. At high speed in flat water, Heron feels like she is “locked on rails”. Drive her too fast and the hull sections forward of the keel will go airborne as they come off of irregular waves. Around day five of our trip from Hampton to St. John, we adjusted the autopilot to head up a bit above course to reduce the number of seas from dead-abeam, and we kept our speed down by maintaining a second reef. Her cross section forward of the keel is canoe-like with significant rocker –not a most contemporary design. But it was smacking the backside of some waves, ringing her bell so to speak.


Fourth comment: As you can see in the video, the drogue and the hanked-on storm jib on the inner forestay was a sweet combination. They didn’t look overpowered and later in the video they hauled up the double-reefed main, which increased their speed and improved the motion. They had the drogue running from the port beam, presumably to allow the boat to point less downwind (towards Bermuda?). Nice. It might have been better to rig it with a second line to the starboard quarter, allowing them adjust the heading. I carry a Paratech parachute sea anchor to park the boat off of a lee shore, but would much prefer a Jordan series drogue with some bridle steering capability for speed control in dangerous seas. I carry a storm jib pre-loaded in its bag, attached to the Kevlar inner forestay with soft hanks. But I would much prefer that it be roller furled. This keeps us off the foredeck, keeps the sail bag off of the deck, and allows partial furling speed control. But think of it: The furling line is a single point of failure; boats who leave jibs up in Marion harbor during Irene and other storms often get huge pockets that shake the devil out of their rigs; one of the NARC boats had a pocket in their Kevlar jib and were just waiting for the rig to come down. So maybe the storm tactic underway should be to commit early to the storm jib on the inner forestay and wrap other roller furled headsails using a spare halyard to prevent them from developing a pocket.
 


Fifth comment: I do NOT like the preventer shown in the video that was rigged between the toe rail and to the mid-boom. Bad idea. Old school. Look how close some of the seas get to the boom. One dip and they have a broken boom or gooseneck. Any boat preparing for offshore should have a preventer that goes from the end of the boom directly to a block on the bow, and back to the cockpit –the design described by Bill Seifert and Dan Spurr in their book “Offshore Sailing: 200 Essential Passagemaking Tips”, and in many Marion-to-Bermuda Race seminars. (It also offers a faster and safer way to control a jibe without touching the mainsheet, so I use it jibing down the bay all summer long.)


Sixth comment: Wind doesn’t destroy boats; seas do. Since we are born and bred sailing in protected waters, we are enamored by wind speed forecasts. But big seas will lag the arrival of strong winds, will vary over a wide height distribution, and the same wave height can range from fun to terrifying depending on its shape (period, etc.). It sure would be nice to have both a better measure of sea state, higher resolution forecasts and more live buoy data. The wave height grib as shown on passageweather.com is awesome, but we need better.


Seventh comment: The article helps us recognize that seasoned sailors can make serious mistakes. Why did Jan come up from below in nasty conditions without wearing a vest/harness/tether? After a few days of physical and mental stress, sensory overload from shrieking rigging, a never-ending full-body work out from wild motion, the non-knowing when it was going to get better, the frustration of not making progress, etc., mental and physical capabilities are far far below normal. After getting repeatedly swept by waves in a “10-year storm” in 1983 in our 31 foot Southern Cross coming back offshore to Marion from Nova Scotia, I suggested to folks that the best way to imagine our misadventure is to don’t eat for a day or so, drink way beyond the legal limit, take an extended icy cold shower with your clothes on, climb onto a tumbling amusement park ride without fastening your harness in the darkest night while taking a math test that you need to pass. We should take no solace from our knowing to stay clipped onto the boat. Because in such depths of exhaustion, since it isn’t both trivial and automatic behavior, you and I might have made the same brief mistake that Jan did.


Eighth comment: Finally, I have to express my fundamental frustration when some imply that it is ok to make risky weather decisions if you know your boat and have experience and are well prepared. Those things are baseline requirements. But given the other options of waiting or going down the coast (from Newport towards Cape May), why would you instead think that you should dash through a forecast gale, across the stream, in the face of a blocked low to the south?! In the prior post, I already vented my humble opinion that it was clearly a dangerous decision. Oh. No prob. We can stop in Bermuda. Huh? It doesn’t make it ok (in my mind) that the boats who got into Bermuda in 84 hours just ahead of the stink think they made the right decision. I’m not hearing any or enough regret from them about their decision to leave and that they were lucky they didn’t have an issue. To suggest that if they put a professional skipper on every boat, and if there is enough crew to get there without an autopilot, and if the boat can handle 60 knots sustained over a long period, then all is good to go. Bullshit. Total bullshit. Just red herrings to distract from the fundamental risky behavior. (None of that would have saved that woman.)
Still, I’m a libertarian in this matter. If they want to ski en mass down Mount Washington with avalanche warnings, when perhaps another trail is safe. Let ‘em. But when they get to the bottom missing one of their own, they shouldn’t be proud and somehow justify the mistake by saying that those guys didn’t have the right skis to keep up..., or shouldn’t have listened to Herb.


RIP Jan Anderson

Saturday, January 28, 2012

November Storms Revisited

I’m caught up in this season of political and football talk show over-analysis. What did we know and when did we know it? Let’s animate the forecast that we had and generate some 20/20 hindsights.
Using the GFS model grib file that I downloaded on the morning of Nov 1, using RNS to animate sailing down the rhumb line (RL) from Newport to Bermuda, starting from a hypothetical departure time of 1000 on Tuesday Nov 1 --roughly when the NARC departed, and assuming an average SOG of 8 knots, the animated forecast shows that a 1007 mb low is forecast to cross the RL about 320 nm SE of Newport at around 5pm later that day (Tuesday), generating a large region of NE40. Leaving as we hypothetically would have, on the back side of that low, the animation reasonably predicts that we might experience winds increasing above NE30 where we’d be on Wednesday morning and peaking on Wednesday night to the mid to upper-30s –strong but fast reaching conditions. The low was forecast to scoot off to the ENE before we get there. Strong boat? Seasoned crew? Let’s go!

But... the grib also forecasts that it will leave behind 5-6m seas (16-20 ft.), as a region of 6m seas forms over the Gulf Stream (GS) around 0700 on Wednesday, moves slowly SE with us and subsides to under 5m by noon on Thursday. Imagine a forecast for 16-20 ft wind-driven waves from the NE in the region of the GS flowing in the opposite direction. Those would be two-story walls of water parading toward us from the port beam. That mess might take a few days to clear up once the low passed. If the low intensifies or slows down relative to the forecast, then we’d be in even stronger winds and higher seas. In fact the model released on the next day (Nov 2) shows the low to be deeper --1004 mb, moving more more slowly --crossing our RL early Wednesday morning, with stronger winds--in the mid-40s. Let’s wait.

Other sources of weather information saw it coming earlier. On October 31, the NWS Discussion web site advised that a storm would “bomb” off of Hatteras on Tuesday November 1. We all expected the NARC to hold up beyond Nov 1, or come down the coast to the Chesapeake.

Here is the GRB model forecast for Nov 5 for wind and wave, as viewed on passageweather.com, issued on Nov 5.


That was the first gale that whacked the NARC fleet. When does the the GFS model first predict the second gale they hit –the one that became Tropical Storm Sean and that caused so much loss? Not until Wednesday morning, November 2, the day after the NARC left!! 
- The GFS model grib issued on Tuesday Nov 1 (when the NARC departed Newport) showed a 1013 mb low moving off the coast at Charleston SC on Friday Nov 4. That’s weak. Further, it forecast that low would drift SE then dissipate as a massive 1032 mb high builds along the mid-Atlantic coast east of the Delmarva peninsula. It predicted that by Monday Nov 8, a massive 1028 mb high pressure ridge is set up all the way from Hatteras to Bermuda. The GFS model didn’t yet offer any reason to worry.

- The grib issued on Wednesday, Nov 2 shows the low drifting off of Charleston on Friday morning at 1007 mb, then drifting to the SE and dropping to 1002 mb by midnight. Not good. This low is blocked from moving NE by the massive high pressure ridge running off the Delmarva peninsula. So it will sit out there near our rhumb line over warm water and build nasty seas in its NW quadrant along Cape Hatteras, in the Gulf Stream. (Hear alarm bells ringing.) Already by Nov 2, those of us waiting to depart from the Chesapeake around Nov 7 expected to delay.

- The grib released on Thursday, Nov 3 strengthens it to 1005 mb as it comes off the coast on Friday morning, dropping to 1001 mb by midnight.

- The grib released on Friday, Nov 4 is unchanged, but drops the central pressure to 1000 mb by midnight.

And on and on.  Since the NARC had access to weather forecasts from their fleet meteorologists, and since most boats likely could download grib data from satellite or have one of the satellite weather services or pick up their satphone and chat directly with a real meteorologist at a forecasting service, starting already on Wednesday folks must have been thinking about a possible second gale to their south.  Depending on when you were where, and how you were doing with the first gale, some boats faced a growing painful decision to endure going SE to Bermuda, or head back to the coast.

On the morning of November 8th, the low was named Tropical Storm Sean. Finally,on November 11th just as the seas were easing off of Hatteras, the gate opened and Heron, Freestyle, the Salty Dogs fleet and the Caribbean 1500 fleet departed Hampton for the islands.

So to conclude, Baltimore shouldn’t have missed the field goal, and the game should have been settled in overtime.  One more post about November and I'll move on.  I promise.

Friday, January 6, 2012

November Post Mortem

Here are some websites that describe the various marine emergencies that were experienced by other boats headed to the Caribbean in early November—most notably the North Atlantic Rally for Cruisers (NARC) fleet that left from Newport (Nov 1). As I’m sure you know, one person was lost when she was swept overboard. Two or three boats were abandoned and several boats had sails, rigging and rudder damage.




Roy and Gail G. aboard S/V Cordelia from Marion were in the storm and posted some awesome videos on their fascinating blog:
http://svcordelia.net/wordpress1/2011/11/29/videos-of-the-storm-nov-5-7/

Timing was everything.  The day we arrived to St. Thomas, a boat had pulled into the slip next to us, steering by emergency tiller.  They had blown out sails and had left Hampton several days before we did.  We had a great trip;  they had a terrible trip.
Here is a note from Alan F., J/160 Avatar (Quisset):
"After we were in I took a run up to Norman’s Island.  A guy sat next to me at the bar looking worn and beat. They had just arrived the same day we did, but had departed 2 November. (We left a 2 pm on 17 November.)  They had suffered 2 gales and had to hove to in some NE 45 kn winds in the stream. They could not control the boat to keep sailing, rescues going on all around.

I said, hey we had a large sit -down Thanksgiving dinner, and really did not do any sailing. Even the first night out on my watch we had only sustained 45 kn for 2 hours, top speed 20.5kn (gps 5 second average) on a single reef main and never came off the auto pilot. Diesel heat in the cabin.

With that news the guy look really depressed so I bought him another drink.  He said it was the first time he was truly scared at sea."

My wife and I don’t watch horror movies or violent movies in general. To me they reek of seeking entertainment in other people's suffering –real or ficticious.  On New Year's day we took an amazing trip back into the Roman era by visiting the Pompei exhibit at the Boston Museum of Science.  The gladiator helmet and description of colliseum "entertainment" were terrifying and vicious and in contrast with the sensitive humanity shown by the body casts.  So I am uncomfortable when armchair sailors throw out opinions or accusations or regurgitate unverified information in the various forums discussing the very real tragedy that occurred. People push way too far under the guise of learning from the mishap, but typically they just a churn a mess of assumptions and guesses --for entertainment.

-Do I have an opinion? Of course.
-Was I also watching the weather for weeks as a skipper trying to decide if we had a viable weather window? You betcha.
-Did I think the NARC was nuts to depart from Newport to Bermuda with a stationary low being blocked from moving by a massive high to its north... in November... over unusually warm water... when a coastal option was available? Yes. Nuts.  On October 31, the NWS forecaster discussion said that the low south of Hatteras was going "to bomb".  Both Don and I did not expect them to go when they did. We would have gone down the coast, giving that thing more time to show its hand, probably ending up at Hampton with the other fleets.   Yet, there but for the grace of God go I.
-Do I vehemently disagree with some of the experienced opinions on these websites? Definitely.
-Is sailing full of independent-minded folks who don’t like to be herded to a consensus opinion? Yup. Just look at all of the crazy different boats in any harbor and see that each one probably fits its owner just fine.

Monday, January 2, 2012

Dec 26, Francis Bay St. Thomas

On Monday 12/26, we sailed around Pillsbury Sound, picked up a mooring in Francis Bay STJ, snorkeled with the fish and had a sunset dinner at Maho Bay Camp.  Another beautiful day in paradise.

Today we beat up the Windward Passage on the NW side of StJ, into a NE wind and current. I’ll never forget the stark beauty of passing to weather of the Blunder Rocks on the NE end of Lovango Cay. I doubt the square riggers did this very often, and I’m sure they weren’t following the COG vector on their electronic chart plotters. Even today there were very few other boats sailing upwind. But any suggestion that our glorious sail was remotely heroic is purely comical. The route was only six miles. We had to zig and zag this way and that (but not hither and yon) just to get some sailing in.

What can I say? It’s a challenge to sail very far in the Virgin Islands. Everything is ridiculously close together and the pain of passing so many gorgeous bays and islands cannot be endured. Little boats tow big RIBs with big outboards. RIBs and sit-on-top kayaks go everywhere. Except for a few tricky places, there is always shelter nearby. Sailboats typically motor-sail or just motor. As reported long ago by Peter Burch, sailing here is just what you do when you want to change your view. If you get tired of the fish or the panorama, just go a few miles around the bend. You in the islands, mon.

The girls would ask, “How far are we going today?” I’d answer, “from Marion to Cleveland Ledge—but not back.” On a long day here, the answer would be, “from Marion to Hadley Harbor.” If the 20+ mile days of our BYC summer cruises seem short, here they’d be 5 mile days! Block Island is farther from Marion (a 50nm day sail) than the maximum NE/SW extent of the combined US and British Virgin Islands, and most boats are within half of that distance. (Remind me to post a rant about Anegada –IMHO the greatest of all charterer fictions.) The maximum NW/SE width of the islands is less than ten miles and Drake Passage is barely five miles wide! But who cares? I could spend weeks happily sailing back and forth along the south coast of StJ (the best sailing here IMHO) --just as I annually put 1500 nm on Heron’s log just counting the zigs and zags within Buzzards Bay.

Meanwhile, with Heron tied to a US National Park Service mooring, the seven snorkelers patrolled the reef on the N shore of Francis Bay. It was beautiful, but things were churned up a bit and we saw more fish in Christmas Cove. It was a thrill to swim ashore from the mooring. Jumping off the transom into 30 feet of water, you can just make out the bottom so it feels like you are swimming in blue space. Closer to shore, at a depth of 20 feet the bottom pops out of the blue into vivid detail. At 10 feet, it seems like you can touch the sandy bottom. We spend all of our time drifting or swimming back and forth along the rocks on the shore in even shallower water, since that is where all the fish and coral are. Here, diving with tanks doesn’t make sense unless you explore deep wrecks,or deep ocean shelf walls or rarely visited underwater piles of rocks.
Our wildlife thrill happened back aboard when a large sea turtle swam past. They periodically stick their heads out of the water to look around (I guess), becoming suddenly apparent to half-baked humans on boats. QUICK. Get the camera. Later, the park volunteer explained that the turtles love to eat the turtle grass located in the shallow sandy area in the NE corner of the bay. She was happy to report that both the grass and the turtles seem to be thriving and growing more numerous. She also reported that a huge powerboat was chased out of the bay after it ran its underwater disco lights all night. They have strict rules within the park that are designed to preserve the wildlife.

Later in the afternoon we went ashore at the Maho Bay Camp. Imagine a sandy beach at the base of a lush green hill. Wooden stairs rise up through the growth, switching back and forth with tent cabins perched along the way.   At one point we looked up to see a 3 foot wild iguana resting in a branch just above our heads. I was loving my hat after a passerby mentioned that they like to poop on people below. At the top of the climb there is an open-air restaurant that juts out over the trees with a great view of the bay several hundred feet below.  They serve a delicious, inexpensive and healthy sunset buffet that we have been looking forward to ever since Peter took us here on our 2010 cruise aboard J/46 Skittery Gusset. That’s how the day ended: cold beer, curried chicken and a gorgeous sunset on the bay. Julia,  Kelsey and Emily each received a parentally approved henna tattoo. They were now members of the cult of island chicks.  They discouraged me from getting an anchor on my bicept.  Oye.